Is there still a way back, or are we inevitably condemned to watch our planet burn in silence? Global warming leaves, once again, a worrying record. The threat of new record temperatures shows a clear trend. The record global temperatures observed in 2024 were in line with expectations of human-caused climate change. It is collected in a work from the University of Pennsylvania (United States). The study is published in 'Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences'.
Worrying simulations
It is true that these temperatures were driven by the El Niño phenomenon of 2023/2024. But in 2024, record global temperatures were recorded. And they already surpassed the previous record from 2016 by approximately 0.25°C. The researchers examined whether the 2024 temperatures could be explained by standard climate model simulations.
The authors combined surface temperature observations. Multi-model climate simulations were also used. Thus they explored the probability of annual records of global mean surface temperature (GSTMG) during the last three decades. The authors' simulations incorporated estimates of long-term anthropogenic and natural temperature changes, as well as typical climate variability.
The analysis indicated that the 2024 TSMG record had a probability of occurrence of around 12%. This amounts to an event that occurs once every eight years. The previous TSMG record from 2016 had a similar probability of occurrence, around 14%. In the last three decades, only the record established in 1998, associated with the phenomenon known as 'El Niño of the century, seemed anomalous. It had a probability of occurrence of around 2.5%.
Frequent threats
The threat of new record temperatures has a clear cause. The authors note that all recent records for global mean land surface temperature (GMGT) would be virtually impossible without anthropogenic warming. The one in 2024 represents an event that occurs approximately once every millennium. According to the authors, when considering anthropogenic warming, the 2024 TMGT record is no longer relevant.
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